Nigeria experienced a rare reversal in its inflation trend in September 2025, as data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed the nation’s first month-on-month food deflation in more than 13 years.

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, headline inflation eased significantly to 18.02%, down from 20.12% in August, one of the sharpest monthly declines in recent times.

The slowdown was largely driven by a notable drop in food inflation, which fell to 16.87% in September from 21.87% the previous month. Even more striking was the -1.57% month-on-month food inflation rate, indicating an actual fall in food prices — the first negative reading since February 2012, when it stood at -0.13%.

Analysts attribute this moderation to several factors, including seasonal harvest trends, statistical base effects, and the recent rebasing of the inflation basket by the NBS.

The ongoing harvest season across key agricultural regions boosted the supply of staples such as maize, yam, rice, and vegetables, commodities that typically experience price drops during this period.

Additionally, the rebasing of the inflation basket, which updates the list of goods and services used to measure inflation to reflect current consumption habits, helped realign price weightings across categories. This adjustment, combined with a high comparative base from last year, amplified the overall slowdown.

The consistent fall in prices of major food items highlights the impact of improved market supply and seasonal factors, underscoring a temporary but welcome relief in Nigeria’s persistent inflationary pressures.